Former UFC welterweight contender Matt Brown believes the fear of failure could be the biggest motivation driving Conor McGregor ahead of his long-awaited return at UFC 329.
After spending five years away from competition, McGregor will finally step back into the Octagon on Saturday when he faces Max Holloway in the UFC 329 main event. The fight marks his first appearance since suffering a devastating broken tibia and fibula in his trilogy bout against Dustin Poirier in 2021.
While many fans and analysts have questioned whether McGregor can still compete at the highest level after such a lengthy layoff, Matt Brown believes the Irish star may be entering this fight with a renewed sense of urgency.
Speaking on MMA Fighting’s The Fighter vs. The Writer, Brown explained why he expects a different version of McGregor when he faces Holloway.
“We’re not going to see the same Conor, that’s for sure,” Brown said. “I don’t disagree with that at all. But there’s a couple things to take into account. For one, when we say we’re not going to see the same Conor McGregor, we know that because he’s not going to have that same hunger he had before. But coming off a couple of losses, he’s got something to prove now.”
Brown believes UFC 329 carries far more personal significance for McGregor than many people realize.
“This is a very, very big fight for him personally,” Brown continued. “Every Conor McGregor fight is big publicly, but personally, this is the world to him. He might have some of that hunger back.”
According to Matt Brown, McGregor is no longer fighting from a position of dominance. Instead, he enters UFC 329 under immense pressure to silence critics and prove he still belongs among the sport’s elite.
“He’s got to win this fight. He’s got to prove motherf*ckers wrong,” Brown said. “Not that he didn’t necessarily feel that before, but he was on top of the world. I’m sure he more expected to win versus have to win. This is putting him in the pressure cooker.”
Brown added that the consequences of a loss could be significant for McGregor’s future inside the UFC.
“He has to win this fight. This is a terrible look if he doesn’t win this fight. It really affects a lot of things going forward.”
McGregor has not recorded a UFC victory since his 40-second knockout of Donald Cerrone in January 2020. Since then, he has suffered back-to-back losses to Poirier and spent years recovering from injury while dealing with constant speculation about whether he would ever fight again.
The former two-division champion reportedly has just one fight remaining on his current UFC contract. While his star power ensures fans will continue to watch him regardless of the result, Brown argues that a victory dramatically changes the conversation around his career.
“Does he fight again? Does he renegotiate with the UFC with one fight left on his contract after this?” Brown asked. “There’s so many pieces where a win is such a massive difference here.Coming back, all the hype, and he knows as well as we do, if he doesn’t win, everybody’s going to be like, ‘Don’t fight again. We don’t need to see this anymore.'”
Brown acknowledged that McGregor will always attract attention, but said the demand for future fights would look very different if he loses to Holloway.
“It’s Conor, we’re always going to have demand, but the demand’s not going to be the same,” Brown said. “If he goes and wins, and he beats Max Holloway, it will be huge.”
Many observers were surprised that McGregor chose to return against an opponent as accomplished as Holloway. However, Matt Brown believes there may be a calculated strategy behind the matchup.
The rematch takes place at welterweight, a division where McGregor has competed multiple times. Holloway, meanwhile, built most of his career at featherweight and lightweight.
Looking back at their first meeting in 2013, Brown believes McGregor’s physical advantages played a key role in the outcome.
“He out-physicalled Max the first time,” Brown said. “He did a lot of takedowns. I know he tore his ACL during the fight, but he overall just out-physicalled him. He bullied him a little bit, pushed him around.”
“It only makes sense to come back and do this at this bigger weight class where Conor apparently has adapted to that size,” he said.
He also pointed to Holloway’s recent setbacks as factors that may have influenced McGregor’s decision.
“When we put all of that into account, and he picks Max Holloway to come back against—someone that he beat once, that he bullied—I think he looks at Max’s trajectory,” Brown explained. “Either knock him out or maybe do like he did in the first fight, bully him around, take him down, hold him down.”
Despite recognizing McGregor’s potential path to victory, Matt Brown is still leaning toward Holloway to get the win at UFC 329.
Even so, he believes McGregor’s desperation to prove doubters wrong could make him a far more dangerous opponent than many expect.
“I could see where Conor could have some hunger,” Brown said. “I could see where he could see a clear path to victory here.Of course, it’s not going to be easy. This is Max Holloway. This is not going to be an easy fight.”
Brown concluded by noting that McGregor has had plenty of time to study, prepare, and rebuild during his five-year absence.
“But the more you put the pieces together, it makes a lot more sense,” Brown said. “Of course, Conor’s had five years to think about it, so he’s put a lot of pieces together.”
