Joe Pyfer has already gained an early edge heading into his biggest UFC test yet, opening as the betting favourite against former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya.
UFC CEO Dana White confirmed on Tuesday that Israel Adesanya will headline UFC Seattle against Pyfer on March 28, a matchup that immediately sent ripples through the middleweight division. For Pyfer, the bout represents a career-defining opportunity to surge up the rankings and announce himself as a legitimate title threat.
Early betting lines suggest the oddsmakers believe in that possibility.BetOnline initially listed the fight as a pick’em, with both Israel Adesanya and Pyfer opening at -110. Within hours, money poured in on Pyfer, shifting him into a slight favorite over “The Last Stylebender.” The updated odds imply a 57 per cent win probability for Pyfer, while Adesanya sits at roughly 47 percent.
The shift marks a rare moment in Israel Adesanya’s UFC career. This is only the second time he has entered a fight as an underdog. Adesanya first opened as a slight underdog against Robert Whittaker before their initial clash, though the line flipped by fight night. Since then, Adesanya has consistently been favoured, until now.
Recent results have played a role in the betting movement. Israel Adesanya is currently enduring the toughest stretch of his UFC run, having dropped three straight fights. His most recent setback came last February, when Nassourdine Imavov knocked him out.
Pyfer, meanwhile, has enjoyed steady momentum. The Dana White’s Contender Series alum has never entered a UFC bout as an underdog and rides a three-fight winning streak. He last competed at UFC 320, where he submitted Abus Magomedov in dominant fashion.
UFC Seattle takes place on March 28 at Climate Pledge Arena and features a women’s flyweight co-main event between Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber.
Joe Pyfer is not just aiming to beat Israel Adesanya, he wants to make a statement. The rising middleweight understands what a victory over a former champion would mean for his career. With one win, Pyfer could find himself firmly in the title conversation.
Despite facing one of the most accomplished strikers in UFC history, Pyfer’s confidence has not wavered.
“I got this opportunity, and I’m absolutely bringing the heat,” Pyfer said in an interview with Ariel Helwani. “I’m going to try to be the first one to stop him in a really bad way. In a competitive way, and I hope we’re both healthy afterwards, but I know I have those capabilities over anyone in the division to really hurt someone where they don’t move.”He added, “I’m just excited to test my skills.”
A violent finish over Israel Adesanya would instantly elevate Pyfer’s profile and validate the hype surrounding his rapid ascent.
While Pyfer has spoken openly about finishing Israel Adesanya, he has also expressed deep appreciation for the opportunity.
Pyfer acknowledged that Adesanya could have chosen a different opponent but opted to face him instead.
“Izzy was not on the radar, and when they said it, I was just grateful,” Pyfer said. “It could have been anybody, but it’s me. It’s little Joey P. The way my story is, it can’t be written any better, the adversity, the journey, the ups, the downs, the sickness, the injuries.”
He continued, “I finally get my chance, and it’s fair game.”
Joe Pyfer enters UFC Seattle with a 15-3 professional record and currently holds the No. 15 ranking at middleweight. On March 28, he gets the chance to test himself against Israel Adesanya and potentially reshape the division in the process.
