Charles Oliveira has been in deep waters before, but several UFC stars don’t see him making it to the surface this Saturday.
The former lightweight king Charles OIiveira will square off against Ilia Topuria for the vacant UFC Lightweight Championship in the main event of UFC 317. Once the cage door shuts in Las Vegas, Islam Makhachev officially vacates his belt, opening the door for a new ruler at 155.
But former champions aren’t putting their money on “do Bronx.”
On the MMArcade Podcast, Robert Whittaker made it clear, he’s riding with the Spaniard.
“Ilia is a weapon,” Whittaker said. “What he did to (Alexander Volkanovski) and what he did to Max (Holloway), two of the best featherweights – Volk being the best featherweight to have ever done it – he starched two legends of the sport. That is unreal. Ilia’s skill set is ridiculous. Charles is phenomenal, as well. He’s super dangerous off his back. Ilia has the grappling to do it. Charles standing, very textbook – but gets hit a lot. Ilia loves scrapping, loves moving on the inside, loves slipping punches to land punches. He’s so good at dirty boxing. I just don’t see where Charles wins this fight against Ilia.”
Topuria is coming up from featherweight, but that’s not unfamiliar ground for Oliveira either. The Brazilian spent a good portion of his early UFC career at 145 before turning things around in the lightweight division. Still, the step up in weight doesn’t seem to bother Whittaker or others backing Topuria. The power clearly translates.
However, that’s not just Whittaker talking. Jorge Masvidal and Aljamain Sterling are also picking Topuria, pointing to his finishing instincts. Both fighters in this title fight bring nearly 90% finish rates. Oliveira holds the record for most submissions in UFC history, but Topuria’s back-to-back knockouts of Volkanovski and Holloway turned heads.
Israel Adesanya has stopped doubting him.
“To beat two of the greatest featherweights of all time, back-to-back. It’s hard to doubt a guy like that again,” Adesanya said.
When it comes to Oliveira, Adesanya doesn’t like what he sees.
“He gets caught too much for my liking,” he added. “If he wants to go forward straight away, he’s gonna get caught. I just see Ilia as too sharp with the hands, man. He’s too sharp with the hands.”
Oliveira has been dropped in four of his last seven fights, and Adesanya believes Topuria will make him pay early if he comes out aggressive.
“Charles needs good footwork because I don’t think he’s gonna be moving forward for long… Let’s see what the grappling is about. Test it, because no one’s tested Topuria’s grappling quite well yet. In this fight, I’m gonna go Ilia Topuria, I’m gonna go by knockout. I don’t know what round, but for me it’s just because Charles, he gets touched too much for my liking, so I just think Ilia will find the shot, I think pretty early if Charles decides to just be aggressive like he says and push forward, and then if he gets hurt, Ilia will find that shot again.”
The hype surrounding Oliveira vs Topuria is real, but so is the danger. Topuria’s confidence is backed by violence, and Oliveira’s chin has looked shakier with each outing. On paper, it’s a striker vs grappler matchup but in reality, it may come down to who lands first. And more and more fighters are betting that it’s going to be Topuria.
