Tsarukyan’s clearest path is to turn the fight into a physical, grappling-heavy contest. Ruffy’s recent UFC performances have shown how dangerous he can be when opponents allow him to establish his striking rhythm. He stopped Rafael Fiziev and Michael Chandler in consecutive fights, with the Chandler victory coming via a spinning wheel kick and punches.
Ruffy’s biggest challenge will be defending Tsarukyan’s wrestling for five rounds. Tsarukyan has already submitted Dan Hooker and owns victories over Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush during his current run.
Arman Tsarukyan
Last 3 bouts
Win. Dan Hooker — Submission
Win. Charles Oliveira — Split Decision
Win. Beneil Dariush — TKO
Strengths
Elite wrestling and takedowns
Excellent scrambling ability
Strong top control
Good ground-and-pound
Increasingly effective boxing
Excellent cardio
Five-fight winning streak
Experience against elite lightweight competition
Weaknesses
Can sometimes become too aggressive with his entries
Has been caught during striking exchanges
Gives up height and reach to Ruffy
His striking is less proven than his wrestling against elite opposition
Ruffy’s one-shot power presents a serious danger if Tsarukyan cannot close distance safely
Keys to victory
Close the distance behind his jab
Mix takedowns with striking rather than repeatedly shooting from distance
Pressure Ruffy against the cage
Make Ruffy defend wrestling throughout the fight
Control the Brazilian from top position
Avoid prolonged exchanges in the pocket
Mauricio Ruffy
Last 3 bouts
Win. Michael Chandler — TKO
Win. Rafael Fiziev — TKO
Lose. Benoit Saint-Denis — Submission
Strengths
Exceptional knockout power
Creative kicking game
Fast hands
Excellent timing
Dangerous counter-striker
Strong movement
Confidence from consecutive UFC stoppage wins
Five-round experience will be valuable in this matchup
Weaknesses
Wrestling remains the biggest question against an opponent like Tsarukyan
Has been submitted in the UFC
Can give up position while looking for spectacular strikes
Relies heavily on his striking
Has less experience against elite grapplers
Keys to victory
Keep the fight standing
Maintain distance with kicks
Make Tsarukyan pay for every takedown attempt
Attack the body and legs
Use lateral movement rather than backing straight toward the cage
Look for counters when Tsarukyan enters
Avoid spending extended periods underneath Tsarukyan
Odds
Arman Tsarukyan -305
Mauricio Ruffy +245
