Former UFC veteran Matt Brown believes Gina Carano could pull off a major upset against Ronda Rousey despite entering their long-awaited clash as a heavy betting underdog.
Rousey and Carano are set to headline Most Valuable Promotions’ first MMA event this Saturday at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. The card will stream live on Netflix and marks the return of two of the biggest pioneers in women’s MMA.
Carano has not competed professionally since 2009, while Rousey last fought in 2016. With both women returning after years away from the cage, Brown admitted he is not expecting a technical masterpiece. Still, the longtime UFC veteran believes Carano has a realistic path to victory.
“I think it’s going to be an ugly fight for the most part,” Matt Brown said during an appearance on The Fighter vs. The Writer.
“Here’s why I’m going to go with Gina Carano — I think Gina’s naturally a little bit bigger than Ronda. I think during this downtime, I don’t know either of them personally, but based on their personalities online and in the media, I’d assume Carano at least tried to stay in shape. With Ronda, I think she completely stopped training and is only now coming back.”
Brown also admitted that personal bias may play a role in his prediction, saying he relates more to Carano than Rousey. At the same time, he argued that Rousey’s style is far easier to prepare for.
“Lastly, Ronda is a lot more predictable,” Brown explained. “She’s not going to shoot double legs. It’s going to be judo-style takedowns. She needs to clinch and try to throw you. If Gina does the basic things correctly, she should be able to stop that.”
“With that said, it’ll probably be ugly as hell. Ugly as all hell. It’s not going to be anything special, but I’m still picking Carano. Plus, I’m a bigger fan of Gina, so maybe there’s some bias there too.”
Matt Brown also pointed to Holly Holm’s famous upset victory over Rousey in 2015 as proof that Rousey’s grappling-heavy game can be neutralized with the right strategy.
“The thing is, everything Ronda does can be mitigated,” Brown said. “I shouldn’t say easily, but you can learn quickly how to avoid the armbar or avoid getting tossed. Holly Holm gave everyone the blueprint. I don’t even think Ronda got a single takedown in that fight.”
Brown added that while he respects Rousey’s judo credentials, including her Olympic bronze medal, he believes some aspects of the sport do not translate smoothly into MMA.
“Judo works differently because you have grips and a gi,” he said. “In MMA, only certain techniques carry over well. Gina has fewer things to worry about preparing for, while Ronda still has to improve her striking. She worked on that for years, and it never really got better.”
Even with his prediction leaning toward Carano, Matt Brown made it clear he is not expecting an instant classic.
“Good luck if you’re expecting a great fight,” Brown joked. “You’re probably going to stay up late watching it and then wonder why you didn’t just go to sleep instead.”
The matchup has already drawn massive attention because of the history behind both women. Rousey became one of the biggest stars in UFC history during her dominant title reign, while Carano helped lay the foundation for women’s MMA before stepping away from the sport.
Now, years later, both pioneers finally meet in a fight that once seemed impossible. And according to Matt Brown, Gina Carano might just have enough left to shock the world.
